Brady is likely to be the deciding factor in a lot of fantasy title games this weekend. The Dolphins have been torched by the pass this season, giving up 21 TDs through the air and allowing 250+ yards per game. The Dolphins should score enough on offense to keep the Pats throwing the ball. Expect Brady to have a solid outing with 3-4 TDs and well over 300 yards. He’s the top QB on my board this week, and it isn’t close.
Wes Welker/Deion Branch
Welker had a quiet week, but he has been a Dolphin killer in his 8 career games against his old team. Anything less than 7 catches for 90 yards would be a disappointment. Branch has been dealing with a groin injury, and there is little incentive for the Pats to rush him back. I wouldn’t rely on him even if he’s active. Even though Ochocinco reeled in a TD, I would not roll the dice on him this week either. The WR corps should be Welker or bust this week.
New England’s Muddled Mess of a Backfield
The Dolphins are among the league’s better teams against the run, so I would elsewhere for help this week. If you’re forced to chose between New England running backs, I could foresee BJGE and Ridley dividing up 18-22 touches and around 80 yards. Woodhead is nothing more than a desperation play in very deep PPR leagues.
Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez
Hernandez broke out in a big way last week, reeling in 9 catches for 129 yards and a score. Look for the good times to continue this week since the Pats may have to rely on their tight ends more with Branch hobbled. Don’t be surprised to see each tight end find the end zone and flirt with 100 yards.
4-5 XP and a FG is the norm.
Patriots Defense/Special Teams
The Pats lost their leading pass-rusher to injury, and the Dolphins have done a pretty good job of protecting the football and avoiding costly mistakes in recent weeks. I’d expect around 2 sacks, 1 turnover and around 20-24 points allowed. You can probably find better options.