Opening Lines: Preseason Week 3

The Patriots are 4.5-point favorites as they visit the Detroit Lions this Saturday.

I picked against the Pats last week. Feel free to leave your verbal abuse for that little faux pas in the comments section. If I don’t get any replies, I’m just going to assume that nobody else saw the wisdom in picking against the Pats even though Vegas was laying them points for the first time since the last major East Coast earthquake. What can I say? Much like geology, betting preseason games is an inexact science.

I’m not going to repeat that mistake this week. This one seems like a slam dunk (famous last words?). The Lions have looked strong in the preseason, but I don’t expect their starters to play more than a series or two into the second quarter. Their three most important players on offense are held together by duct tape, paper clips and rubber bands. Matt Stafford is immensely talented and has the potential to be a great quarterback, but he’s sustained enough injuries in his young career to kill nine Laurence Maroneys. Calvin Johnson has been on the injury report for nearly every part of his body during his first four seasons in the league. If Jahvid Best actually reads this article, he could easily sustain a turf toe injury while typing his reply. The Lions would have to be nuts to expose their best players to injury in a meaningless game against a hard-hitting Patriots defense. That’s the kind of franchise-killing mistake even Matt Millen would avoid.

Brady and Co. should give the Pats a nice early lead since Detroit’s secondary is still a work in progress, and Detroit’s second-stringers do not match up well against New England’s bench.

I expect the Patriots to jump all over the Lions early and hold on to cover the spread.


2010 record ATS: 25-17-1

2011 record ATS: 1-1