The stupid Denver Broncos opened as 2.5-point favorites as they prepare to play the equally stupid Seattle Seahawks in the stupid Super Bowl that I won’t watch.
A number of my colleagues on his blog have expressed varying levels of disappointment, resignation, optimism and pride in New England’s season. While most of them have started to move on to the reflection stage of dealing with loss, it seems like I’m still stuck on anger and bargaining phase. After all of the pain and adversity this team faced over the past 12 months since that fateful loss to the Ravens, they deserved better than to see it end with a soul-crushing loss in Denver.
I’m mad that Brady missed a wide-open Edelman for a long touchdown in the first half. I’m mad that Logan Mankins picked the worst possible time to try his new impression of a turnstile. I’m mad at Welker for taking out Talib, and I’m mad at Talib’s parents for giving him a genetic predisposition to repeatedly missing game time after hits that appear routine. I’m mad that they spent the entire first half running into a brick wall on first down instead of mixing up the playcalling a bit. I’m mad that Peyton Manning is getting all the praise for heading to the Super Bowl because he picked apart New England’s second-stringers on defense. AGAIN. Mostly, I’m just mad that for the third year in a row, the Pats saw their season end mainly because they played poorly, not because their opponents played all that well.
Still, a game will be played on February 2, and it happens to the most wagered-upon event in the world. The Broncos are favored because of Peyton Manning, but I like Seattle’s odds of pulling the upset. Denver’s offense has been merely above average in the second half of the season, and the Seahawks defense is strong from top to bottom. They generate great pressure, and the secondary is among the best in football. The Broncos do well defending the run, but they are also beat up on defense. I’m not sure they can stop down Marshawn Lynch. Also, Seattle benefits from having the biggest asshat on the field in Richard Sherman, and in recent years, asshats have done well in the Super Bowl. Just call that one a hunch.
I’ll take Seattle and the points.
Other Lines I Like
First Score of the Game – Not a TD +135
Seattle’s biggest weakness on offense is their inability to put the ball in the end zone in the red zone. They also have a great defense. To get better than even money on this prop is like stealing money.
2015 Super Bowl winner – New England +1500
This season has pretty much been a train wreck in terms of my picks, so I need to throw a Hail Mary to make it profitable. So why not throw a few bones on a young team in good cap shape that made the Conference Title Game without six or seven key starters, all of which should return next year? Wait, did I just enter the Acceptance phase? That was quick…
2013 Record ATS: 28-30-3
Record ATS since 2010: 134-128-5