The Patriots opened as 9-point favorites as they host the Bills in Week 17.
Truth be told, I gave very serious consideration this week to canning this feature and calling it a year. My picks have been atrociously bad, I’ve had precious little time to put into providing quality content due to the extra responsibilities of taking care of a wife who is still recovering from brain surgery, and the Pats have pretty much exhausted my last nerve through every improbable comeback, grinding victory and baffling loss this season. The only thing that brought me back was the idea that folks might actually be taking time away from their friends and family on Christmas Eve (or even Christmas Day) to read my tripe. That kind of dedication deserves to be rewarded, even if it’s just a short snippet of me bitching about my dismal record. And Lord, is it ever dismal.
Here’s the rub: the Pats have consistently overperformed when I’ve picked against them, and underperformed when I picked them. What happens when I lay money on the Pats? The Jets happen. The Dolphins happen. The Panthers happen. But when I pick against them? Magic against the Broncos, Ravens and Saints. My record against the spread this year is beyond repair. Does it really matter if I nail the last two, three or four New England games at this point? That’s like pissing into the ocean. Or trying to figure out which one of Geno Smith’s picks was the worst. You’re not going to get far.
So there is no reasoning here other than #itsonlyweirdifitdoesntwork. I’m taking the Bills and the points, and I see no conceivable way the Patriots can cover. You’re welcome, Pats Nation. Merry Christmas.
Other Lines I Like
Jaguars (+12) @ Colts
Two ways to win this bet. Jacksonville has actually been quasi-competitive in the second half of the season, and the Colts tend to play to the level of their competition. Indy has a playoff spot locked up, and their odds of nailing down a bye are slim. Even if they are up three scores in the 4th quarter, do you think they’ll keep the pedal on the floor if the Bengals or Pats are winning? That is a prime opportunity to rest their guys and stay healthy for the playoffs.
Giants (-3.5) vs. Redskins
You know what I’d do if I was an NFL coach and wanted to get fired so I could sit at home and collect a paycheck for doing absolutely nothing? Pretty much everything that Mike Shanahan has done in the past several weeks. I fully expect him to start RG3 at halfback and hand every ball to him until the Giants tear out his spleen. The Giants are an embarrassment this year, but at least their head coach is still making an active attempt to remain competitive.
2013 Record ATS: 20-25-3
Record ATS since 2010: 126-123-5